Trump’s Historic Victory: Economic and Political Shifts in the 2024 Election

by Trent Wiseman | November 19, 2024

The 2024 U.S. presidential election marked a historic turning point as Donald Trump secured a non-consecutive second term with 51% of the popular vote and 312 electoral votes (Figure 1). Trump became the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to achieve this feat, with his win reflecting a strategic focus on economic nationalism. His campaign resonated with working-class voters in key Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which proved pivotal in his 2016 victory and again in 2024. The Republican Party also gained control of the Senate with 52 seats and narrowly captured the House of Representatives, completing what many have termed a “red tide.”

Figure 1

Economic Factors Driving the Vote

Economic challenges, particularly inflation, played a decisive role in the election outcome. Since 2021, a 20.5% cumulative rise in the general price level has eroded real wages, disproportionately affecting states that President Biden carried in 2020. While national economic growth remained steady, Rust Belt states lagged, with Michigan even experiencing economic contraction. Inflation emerged as the dominant issue for voters, with 76% reporting it caused financial hardship. Among these voters, Trump captured more than half, including 73% of those who said inflation caused “extreme hardship.”

Trump’s message of economic revival and industrial resurgence resonated strongly with those who felt left behind. He secured 80% of voters who reported worsening household financial conditions over the past four years. Among voters without a college degree, Trump gained 54%, and he made significant inroads with Latino voters, winning 45%, compared to 13% in 2020 and 17% in 2016. This shift underscores the broadening appeal of Trump’s economic platform, which emphasized tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts.

Divided Priorities: Democracy vs. the Economy

Exit polls revealed democracy as the most-cited issue in the election, with 35% of voters listing it as their top concern, compared to 31% for the economy. However, voters were sharply divided on what they perceived as the main threats to democracy. Among those who believed democracy was “very threatened,” 50% voted for Trump, suggesting that dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s handling of legal proceedings against Trump rivalled concerns about the January 6 Capitol riots.

Despite democracy’s prominence, the economy ultimately swayed the election. Voters prioritized Trump’s leadership and perceived ability to enact change, placing these qualities above Harris’s personal appeal, as illustrated in Figure 2.  Trump’s decisive and forceful leadership style appealed to an electorate increasingly polarized and seeking strong decision-making amid economic uncertainty.

Figure 2

Shifts in Social and Cultural Issues

Social issues like abortion, which significantly influenced the 2022 midterms, had a diminished impact in 2024. While voters in blue states supported expanding abortion access, there was broad approval of moderate restrictions on late-term abortions. This nuanced voter response suggests that economic issues overshadowed social concerns in determining the presidential race. Harris’s campaign strategy, which relied heavily on support from white suburban women, faltered as Trump outperformed her by 5 percentage points among white women and 4 points among white suburban women.

Legislative Outlook for 2025

With a Republican-controlled Congress, Trump is expected to advance his policy agenda, including extending the 2017 tax cuts set to expire in 2025. Immigration reform, a contentious issue throughout the campaign, is likely to see action as bipartisan appetite for compromise grows. Trump’s rejection of a bipartisan immigration bill earlier in the year appears to have paid off, setting the stage for a Republican-led legislative push.

Economic deregulation and protectionist trade policies will also be priorities for the Trump administration. Republicans are poised to pursue tariffs on foreign goods, aligning with Trump’s long-standing emphasis on strengthening domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on global supply chains.

Conclusion

The 2024 election outcome underscores the enduring power of economic issues in shaping political landscapes. Trump’s victory reflects widespread discontent with inflation, economic stagnation in key states, and a desire for decisive leadership. As the Republican Party prepares to govern with a united Congress, the focus will shift to implementing policies aimed at economic revival, deregulation, and fiscal conservatism. The election’s results highlight a nation divided on democracy but united in seeking solutions to pressing economic challenges.

 

Source:

BCA Research – Trump’s Historic Comeback: What Catches Our Eye  – 6 November 2024

 

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